You Can’t Feed a Baby on Culture War

The Real Reason Birth Rates Are Falling

The folks at Heritage Foundation often blame declining birth rates on a supposed cultural shift – a loss of family values or an “overeducated” younger generation. For example, they have claimed that, “the decline in the number of children that Americans are having is driven primarily by values, priorities, and government policies,” arguing that people had bigger families in 1970 even with much lower incomes. In this view, young adults today simply prioritize other things over family, and pro-natalist policies should focus on restoring traditional values, even suggesting scaling back higher education incentives to encourage earlier marriages.

America’s birth rate has indeed fallen to a record low (around 1.62 births per woman as of 2023, well below the replacement rate of 2.1). However, the primary barriers to family formation are not ideological – they’re economic. Surveys find that young adults are increasingly forgoing or delaying having children due to financial insecurity. Almost a quarter of childless Millennials and Gen Z (ages 18–43) say they plan to remain child-free “because of money,” citing the freedom of not having kids and doubts about affording the cost of raising them. In a July 2024 Pew survey, 36% of adults under 50 without kids said a major reason for not having children is “they can’t afford to”, a far higher share than among older generations. (Notably, these younger adults were also much more likely to cite concerns about the state of the world or climate change as reasons not to have kids – reflecting a generation anxious about the future into which they’d bring children.) In short, it’s not that young Americans today don’t value family, it’s that many feel they can’t afford it or aren’t secure enough in their own futures to expand their family.

Yet, when the survey below came out recently, people read into it a bit too much. Yes, the divergence from number one ranking shows how gender and politics shape young people’s definitions of success: conservative-leaning young men are among the few who still place considerable value on marriage and children, whereas liberal-leaning young women largely define success in individualistic terms (career, self-fulfillment, and emotional well-being).

But despite these differences, both groups share an underlying theme – an emphasis on securing personal stability and economic freedom first. Even the Trump-supporting men, while more family-oriented than their peers, ranked “financial independence” (33%) and a “fulfilling career” (30%) nearly as highly as having kids. Across the board, Gen Z respondents tended to put foundational goals (education, career, finances, mental health) ahead of traditional milestones like settling down and starting a family.

Reframing Family Formation as an Affordability Issue

It’s time to reframe the discussion around America’s low birth rate. Rather than a culture war about selfish youth or women’s liberation, we should see it as a call to action to fix the structural issues holding young Americans back. Yes, the decision to have children is deeply personal, it involves lifestyle preferences, relationships, even existential worries about the world. But overwhelmingly, the common denominator in modern fertility decisions is economic confidence (or the lack thereof). When people feel secure, they tend to marry and have children; when they feel insecure, they don’t.

This presents a political opportunity as well. Democrats and others who want to champion families can reclaim this issue by focusing on affordability and security. By directly addressing cost-of-living challenges, they can show young people a positive vision: one where starting a family isn’t a road to ruin.

Imagine being able to tell a 30-year-old couple, “We’re making it so your childcare won’t bankrupt you, your student loans won’t haunt you, and you can actually buy a starter home in your community.” That message is far more compelling than moralizing about “re-prioritizing family,” and it would actually solve the problem at its root.

Policies that make raising children easier and more affordable give would-be parents tangible reasons to take the leap. We have a two part series on strengthening family policy on The Rebuild. It aligns economic policy with pro-family values in action, not just words.

Meanwhile, conservatives who truly care about family formation should support these pro-family economic measures instead of fixating solely on intangibles. After all, encouraging marriage and childbearing while opposing childcare aid or housing assistance is a contradiction young people see right through. If one side of the aisle continues down the path of lecturing about cultural decline and pushing draconian cuts (even as they proclaim “family values”), they will likely find that birth rates continue to stagnate, because you can’t feed a baby rhetoric. JD Vance, is often guilty of this, while at the same time focusing on policies that make it harder for families to afford baby essentials as I have argued, here:

The hypocrisy is jarring as Vice President JD Vance has made his time as a Senator and campaign focus on family policy as his number one priority. In fact, his first public speech as VP noted how he wanted "More babies in America." He even touted the idea of a 150% increase in the Child Tax Credit, “I’d love to see a child tax credit that’s $5,000 per child… President Trump has been on the record for a long time supporting a bigger child tax credit, and I think you want it to apply to all American families. Yet despite this pro-family rhetoric, what actually materialized was a modest increase of the Child Tax Credit in the Omnibus Budget Bill – a far cry from the ambitious $5,000 figure Vance championed. Meanwhile, his rhetoric about prioritizing families has notably diminished since taking office, even as tariffs continue to wreak havoc on young parents' budgets. The disconnect between campaign promises and policy reality highlights the administration's failure to deliver meaningful solutions to achieve the pro-birth agenda they so vocally promoted.

You Can’t Boost Birth Rates Without Cutting Costs

America’s fertility challenge is less a moral failing than a policy failing. The rising generation is not anti-family; they are reacting rationally to an economic landscape that makes family-building look like a risky venture. Change that landscape, make it easier to secure a decent job, a home, and care for a child, and you’ll likely find more Americans choosing to have children. Family formation in the 2020s isn’t being held back by Instagram or “woke”; it’s being held back by high rents, low wages, student debt, and $1,500 daycare bills. In the end, making it possible for people to afford the families they aspire to is not just good economics or good social policy – it’s also true to our values.

A society that invests in its young people and supports parents is one that trusts in the future. And perhaps the biggest irony is that by focusing on affordability over ideology, we might actually realize the pro-family goals that both the left and right claim to desire: more Americans secure and confident enough to embrace the joys (and yes, the responsibilities) of raising the next generation.